Analysis of upstream, middle and downstream markets of China's aluminum processing industry chain in 2021

In recent years, China's aluminum processing industry is facing problems such as gradually tightening policies, declining profitability and continuous trade friction. Accelerating transformation and upgrading has become the top priority for the development of aluminum processing industry. With the state's supply side structural reform of the aluminum processing industry and the technological progress of the aluminum processing industry, the aluminum smelting industry is developing to high quality. 1、 Industrial chain the processing industrial chain of aluminum industry refers to the whole industrial chain in which alumina is extracted from bauxite, then made into electrolytic aluminum, then processed into various aluminum materials, and finally applied in downstream products. The aluminum processing industry chain can be divided into three links: upstream raw materials, midstream aluminum profile processing and downstream industry application. Data source: China Commercial Industry Research Institute II. Upstream analysis: the upstream of aluminum processing industry is bauxite, which is decomposed into electrolytic aluminum after producing alumina. Electrolytic aluminum undergoes electrochemical reaction under the action of direct current and precipitates metal aluminum at the cathode. 1. Bauxite the world is rich in bauxite resources with huge reserves. At present, more than 270 kinds of aluminous minerals have been found in the world, of which the most important aluminous ore is bauxite. According to statistics, the global bauxite basic resource reserves are close to 30 billion tons, the output is close to 300 million tons, and the retention period of basic resources is close to 100 years. The global bauxite resources are very rich, but the distribution is extremely uneven. Among them, the reserves of China and Australia account for nearly half of the global reserves. Data source: compiled by USGS and China Commercial Industry Research Institute, China's bauxite output shows a fluctuating growth trend. In 2016, China's bauxite mineral output was 65 million tons. In 2018, China's bauxite output increased to 79 million tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of 10.2%. China Commercial Industry Research Institute predicts that China's bauxite output will reach 85.9 million tons in 2021. Data source: compiled by USGS and China Commercial Industry Research Institute 2. The primary aluminum processing industry is developing rapidly in Asia, South Africa and the Middle East. Since 2003, the scale expansion rate of global aluminum processing industry has increased by 4-6% every year. The data show that in 2020, the global primary aluminum output will be 65.3 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 2%. China Commercial Industry Research Institute predicts that the global primary aluminum output will further increase to 66.6 million tons in 2021. Data source: International Aluminum Association China is a large country of aluminum production and consumption, and the output of primary aluminum ranks first in the world. According to statistics, China's primary aluminum output will be 37.08 million tons in 2020, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5%. It is estimated that China's primary aluminum output will reach 38.2079 million tons in 2021. Data source: compiled by the National Bureau of statistics and China Commercial Industry Research Institute. 3. With the increasing application of electrolytic aluminum in ceramics, medicine, electronics, machinery and other industries, the market demand for alumina still has a large growth space, and the output of alumina will continue to grow. Data show that China's alumina output reached 73.132 million tons in 2020 and 39.281 million tons in the first half of 2021, a year-on-year increase of 11%. Data source: regional distribution of alumina industry in the database of China Commercial Industry Research Institute. From the perspective of regional proportion, the alumina output in East China was the highest in 2020, accounting for 38.3%, followed by North China, accounting for 25.3%. Central China, South China and accounted for more than 10%, 13.8% and 12.9% respectively. Data source: large database of China Commercial Industry Research Institute 4. Electrolytic aluminum electrolytic aluminum is the aluminum obtained by electrolysis, which is mainly used to produce aluminum processing materials for various purposes. Data show that in 2020, China's electrolytic aluminum output reached 37.08 million tons, and in the first half of 2021, China's electrolytic aluminum output reached 19.635 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. Data source: according to the database of China Commercial Industry Research Institute, China's electrolytic aluminum consumption showed an overall growth trend from 2015 to 2019. In 2019, although the growth rate of electrolytic aluminum consumption decreased, it still increased by 2.4% compared with 2018, and the consumption reached 36.72 million tons. It is estimated that the consumption of electrolytic aluminum in China will reach 39.87 million tons in 2021. Data source: China Nonferrous Metals Association and China Commercial Industry Research Institute sorted out the list of relevant listed enterprises in the upstream of aluminum processing: data source: China Commercial Industry Research Institute sorted out III. The midstream analyzed the processing of aluminum in the midstream of the aluminum industry chain, and produced aluminum profiles, pipes, bars and other extruded materials, plates Strip, foil and other flat rolled materials, casting materials and other aluminum materials. 1. China is a big country in aluminum processing. According to statistics, from 2015 to 2020, China's aluminum output increased from 52.364 million tons to 57.793 million tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of 2%. It is estimated that China's aluminum production will reach 53.89 million tons in 2021. Data source: compiled by the National Bureau of statistics and China Commercial Industry Research Institute. From the structure of aluminum in China, the proportion of aluminum profile is the highest, 53%, followed by aluminum strip and foil, 30% and 10% respectively. Data source: compiled by China Commercial Industry Research Institute 2. With the vigorous development of downstream industries such as transportation and construction, the market scale of China's aluminum processing industry has grown rapidly. The total output of China's aluminum plate and belt was about 10.62 million tons in 2016 and 11.9 million tons in 2020, with an average annual compound growth rate of 2.9%. It is estimated that the output of aluminum sheet and strip in China will reach 11.93 million tons in 2021. Data source: compiled by Shanghai Aluminum Industry Association and China Commercial Industry Research Institute. 3. Aluminum foil data show that China's aluminum foil output increased from 3.47 million tons in 2016 to 4.15 million tons in 2020, with an average annual compound growth rate of 4.58%. China Commercial Industry Research Institute predicts that China's aluminum foil output will reach 4.33 million tons in 2021. Data source: compiled by China Nonferrous Metals Association and China Commercial Industry Research Institute. 4. Aluminum alloy aluminum alloy has a series of excellent characteristics, such as easy processing, light weight, good conductivity, and its relatively low cost, which makes it a substitute for steel, copper and other materials. According to the data, China's aluminum alloy output fluctuates obviously, but maintains the growth trend as a whole. In 2020, China's aluminum alloy output totaled 9.636 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.9% from 2015 to 2020. It is expected that the aluminum alloy output will reach 10.376 million tons in 2021. Data source: compiled by the National Bureau of statistics and China Commercial Industry Research Institute. 5. Aluminum profile aluminum profile is mainly used in construction field and industrial field, which can be divided into construction profile and industrial profile. Building profiles are mainly used in construction and real estate industry. Aluminum alloy door, window and curtain wall profiles account for the main part in the sub variety consumption field of building aluminum profiles. Industrial aluminum profiles are mainly used in four fields: transportation, electromechanical equipment, durable goods and electronic appliances. List of listed companies related to aluminum processing industry: Source: China Commercial Industry Research Institute sorting IV. downstream application 1. Building aluminum products are used as materials for glass curtain walls and system doors and windows in the construction and real estate industry. With the increase of urbanization rate and China's increase of fixed asset investment in infrastructure, the total output value of China's construction industry has developed rapidly in the past five years. The total output value of the construction industry increased from 19.3 trillion yuan in 2016 to 26.3 trillion yuan in 2020, with an average annual compound annual growth rate of 16.68%. In the first half of 2021, the total output value of China's construction industry reached 12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%. Data source: compiled by the National Bureau of statistics and China Commercial Industry Research Institute. 2. Automotive aluminum products are mainly used in the field of automotive lightweight, including automotive floor, connectors, doors and windows, luggage rack, advertising rack, car body, etc. In 2020, China's automobile output and sales volume will be 25.52 million and 25.31 million respectively. From January to July 2021, the production and sales of automobiles were 14.44 million and 14.76 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 17.2% and 19.3% respectively. Data source: compiled by China Automobile Association and China Commercial Industry Research Institute 3. In recent years, with the rapid development of consumer electronics, the demand for aluminum profiles in the field of electronic industry has increased rapidly, which is mainly used in the internal structural parts, middle frame, outer shell and support of notebook computers, mobile phones and tablet computers. According to the data, the revenue of China's electronic information manufacturing industry above designated size increased from 12.18 trillion yuan in 2016 to 12.10 trillion yuan in 2020. From January to may 2021, the revenue of China's electronic information manufacturing industry above designated size was 5.11 trillion yuan. Data source: In conclusion, with the steady development of construction industry, automobile industry and consumer electronics industry and the in-depth application of aluminum products in the above fields, the development space of aluminum processing industry is growing.