Environmental protection, power rationing, soaring aluminum prices! Where will the downstream aluminum material plant go

On the occasion of the golden autumn in September, the "bad news" of environmental protection and power rationing came from various markets, and even some manufacturers were hit twice. In view of the above situation, my iron and steel waste aluminum team conducted research on manufacturers in different regions.

Regional environmental protection, power rationing, manufacturer's production, order, waste aluminum inventory, Guangdong Environmental Protection and power rationing aluminum rod factory a has a 60% reduction in production, adequate aluminum rod factory B has two starts and five stops, generally, Jiangsu power rationing aluminum alloy ingot factory C has a sufficient reduction in production, aluminum rod factory D has no sufficient production, Jiangxi no aluminum alloy ingot factory e is normal (wants to stop production) is poor, and general aluminum rod factory f is normal (less than last week) Generally, Shandong Environmental Protection aluminum rod factory G has poor production reduction, general aluminum rod factory h has generally sufficient production reduction, Zhejiang Power Limited aluminum alloy ingot factory I is normal, general sufficient, and aluminum alloy ingot factory J has generally poor production reduction (to stop production)

According to the investigation, at present, the aluminum alloy ingot factory is basically in the loss stage because the silicon price has soared by 40000 yuan / ton in just two months, which has increased the manufacturer's production cost by at least 2000 yuan / ton. Even some manufacturers joked that they did not produce alloy ingots this month, and only selling silicon inventory could meet the company's expenses in the current month. Some small factories stopped production and sold silicon inventory. Today, the price of ADC12 is nearly 1000 yuan / ton higher than that of A00 aluminum ingot. The downstream die-casting small and medium-sized factories basically stop production, so that the orders of alloy ingot factories are gradually reduced. Many alloy ingot enterprises have the idea of stopping production. At the same time, they understand that the inventory of waste aluminum in alloy ingot factories is basically sufficient. In the short term, when the demand for scrap aluminum is weakened and the supply remains unchanged, the price of scrap aluminum and raw aluminum will fall in the future. However, if the price of aluminum and silicon continues to rise, the price of raw aluminum should still have room to rise.

In addition, according to the investigation, the orders of aluminum bar factory this week are lower than that of last week, mainly due to the rise of A00 aluminum price again and the small price difference between remelting bar and aluminum water bar, resulting in more aluminum water bar used by downstream profile manufacturers. At the same time, the operating rate of aluminum profiles has decreased, and the small and medium-sized factories of aluminum profiles have been shut down due to the continuous high operation of aluminum prices, the profits in the factory are weak, and even the production is at a loss; Large factories basically reduced production, mainly on-demand procurement, which led to the reduction of orders for aluminum rod factories. The waste aluminum inventory of aluminum rod factory is relatively general. At present, most of the waste aluminum is purchased on demand, and there is no intention to replenish the inventory. Some manufacturers want to consume the inventory first. The new material price in the scrap aluminum market is mainly related to the spot aluminum price. The aluminum price remains high. Many manufacturers reduce the receiving price by reducing the discount rate, and the new material price of scrap aluminum may rise slightly in the later stage.

To sum up, in the golden September, the downstream did not usher in the peak production season, but the demand declined. At the same time, the reduction of electrolytic aluminum production caused by power restriction led to the rise of aluminum price and the sharp rise of silicon price, which made the downstream enterprises miserable and complained repeatedly. Small and medium-sized enterprises stopped production to fight against the rise of price. However, the circulation source of waste aluminum in the market is still relatively sufficient. The hot atmosphere of preparing goods before the festival has been swept away this year, and manufacturers purchase more at lower prices. From the perspective of supply and demand, the price of waste aluminum should mainly operate stably in the near future. It will be seen whether there is any change when the silver ten reaches.