Guotai Junan Futures: aluminum price is under pressure, and the aluminum social library will accumulate significantly

Yesterday, the reserve bureau announced the fourth batch of aluminum throwing reserves of 70000 tons. If it is estimated according to the magnitude of 500000 tons sold in the whole year, the amount of this time is relatively small, and the night opening is also high. However, we believe that this impact is limited, and the aluminum price has returned to the fundamental logic. On the fundamental side, the cumulative stock of social storage exceeded 40000 tons yesterday, mainly due to the greater suppression of downstream demand by power restriction in many places, so the aluminum price is under pressure. For the future, we believe that the safety margin above the current aluminum price is not good. The reference level can choose the historical high in 2006, mainly because this position has touched the profit squeeze limit of major processing enterprises. If this position is exceeded, most downstream cannot receive goods, and the demand will decrease sharply. The position below the aluminum price is not easy to determine at present, which needs to be judged by subsequent social library data. In the early stage, the mainstream view of the market is that the social library will fall to 500000 tons by the end of the year. If the consumption growth rate in the fourth quarter is reduced, the social library may rise to 900000 tons or even higher by the end of the year, which will actually exceed the market expectation. Under this logic, the possibility of cliff like decline in aluminum price is not ruled out. However, we do not see the depth of the decline, mainly because the supply side will still be affected by the power coal supply. If the subsequent power coal supply is still unable to be effectively guaranteed, there will still be problems at the aluminum supply side, which will support the lower part of the aluminum price. In conclusion, the aluminum price has entered the stage of high price and high fluctuation, and the game between supply and demand, policy and capital has gradually intensified. It is suggested that investors should pay attention to the possible high fluctuation of aluminum price and be vigilant about position risk control.